🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.