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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising together. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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