🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."